Snow interception modelling: Isolated observations have led to many land surface models lacking appropriate temperature sensitivities     

Jessica D. Lundquist  Susan Dickerson-Lange  Ethan Gutmann  Tobias Jonas  Cassie Lumbrazo  Dylan Reynolds 《水文研究》2021,35(7):e14274

When formulating a hydrologic model, scientists rely on parameterizations of multiple processes based on field data, but literature review suggests that more frequently people select parameterizations that were included in pre-existing models rather than re-evaluating the underlying field experiments. Problems arise when limited field data exist, when “trusted” approaches do not get reevaluated, and when sensitivities fundamentally change in different environments. The physics and dynamics of snow interception by conifers is just such a case, and it is critical to simulation of the water budget and surface albedo. The most commonly used interception parameterization is based on data from four trees from one site, but results from this field study are not directly transferable to locations with relatively warmer winters, where the dominant processes differ dramatically. Here, we combine a literature review with model experiments to demonstrate needed improvements. Our results show that the choice of model form and parameters can vary the fraction of snow lost through interception by as much as 30%. In most simulations, the warming of mean winter temperatures from −7 to 0°C reduces the modelled fraction of snow under the canopy compared to the open, but the magnitude of simulated decrease varies from about 10% to 40%. The range of results is even larger when considering models that neglect the melting of in-canopy snow in higher-humidity environments where canopy sublimation plays less of a role. Thus, we recommend that all models represent canopy snowmelt and include representation of increased loading due to increased adhesion and cohesion when temperatures rise from −3 to 0°C. In addition to model improvements, field experiments across climates and forest types are needed to investigate how to best model the combination of dynamically changing forest cover and snow cover to better understand and predict changes to albedo and water supplies.  相似文献   

Trends,drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment     

Nathalie van Vliet  Ole Mertz  Andreas Heinimann  Tobias Langanke  Unai Pascual  Birgit Schmook  Cristina Adams  Dietrich Schmidt-Vogt  Peter Messerli  Stephen Leisz  Jean-Christophe Castella  Lars Jørgensen  Torben Birch-Thomsen  Cornelia Hett  Thilde Bech-Bruun  Amy Ickowitz  Kim Chi Vu  Kono Yasuyuki  Jefferson Fox  Christine Padoch  Alan D. Ziegler 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(2):418-429

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems.  相似文献   

Effect of rod friction on vane shear tests in very soft organic harbour mud     

Benjamin F. Schlue  Tobias Mörz  Stefan Kreiter 《Acta Geotechnica》2007,2(4):281-289

Very soft organic harbour mud is increasingly used as a filling and construction material in harbour construction and reorganization. The undrained shear strength of such soft sediments is the critical geotechnical soil parameter with regard to any specific construction design. Field and laboratory vane shear testing is a standard method to quickly determine this important parameter. So far, the effect of rod friction on vane shear tests in very soft organic soils is unclear. In this study we present results from laboratory experiments on harbour mud from a construction site in northern Germany. Relations among vane and rod geometry, penetration depth, water content, rod friction and undrained shear strength are derived. Based on these relations the influence of rod friction on vane shear test results is investigated. The results indicate that field and laboratory vane shear test measurements may be significantly influenced by rod friction. Methods are proposed to correct for the rod influence, which is shown to increase with rising water contents.  相似文献   

Military Emissions, Armed Conflicts, Border Changes and the Kyoto Protocol     

Axel Michaelowa  Tobias Koch 《Climatic change》2001,50(4):383-394

The impacts of military activities in peacetime, military action and territorial changes on greenhouse gas emission commitments of nations under the Kyoto Protocol are analysed. We propose rules and institutional responsibilities to deal with the repercussions of such changes on markets in emission permits and national commitments aiming at prevention of serious distortions.  相似文献   

Solar radiation extinction,sky radiation,sky light polarization and aerosol particle total number and size distribution on the Island Maui (Hawaii)     

Kurt Bullrich  Reiner Eiden  Ruprecht Jaenicke  Wolfram Nowak 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1968,69(1):280-319

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Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*     

Ida K. Westerberg  Giuliano Di Baldassarre  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):2001-2003

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.  相似文献   

Revising the paradigm of tidal analysis – the uses of non-stationary data     

David A.?JayEmail author  Tobias?Kukulka 《Ocean Dynamics》2003,53(3):110-125

Surface elevation and current records contain non-tidal variance, often dismissed as noise. The processes responsible for the non-tidal component may also modulate the tidal signal, altering its strength and frequency structure. Because of their manner of generation and propagation, internal tides are inherently irregular. The non-stationary character of these and other tidal processes provides an integral and useful property of tidal records, because it provides an opportunity to obtain insights into tidal dynamics and the interaction of tidal and non-tidal processes. It is, moreover, productive to use multiple approaches in analyzing coastal and estuarine tidal processes so that both the time-varying and average frequency content are determined. Only by confronting the causes of non-stationary behaviour in this way can some of the remaining challenges in tidal analysis and prediction be overcome, e.g. shelf and estuarine currents, river tides, internal tides, tide-surge interactions and tidally influenced ecological processes. Several examples illustrate the utility of non-stationary tidal analysis methods.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg  相似文献   

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications     

Harald Geiger  Ian Barnes  Karl H. Becker  Birger Bohn  Theo Brauers  Birgit Donner  Hans-Peter Dorn  Manfred Elend  Carlos M. Freitas Dinis  Dirk Grossmann  Heinz Hass  Holger Hein  Axel Hoffmann  Lars Hoppe  Frank Hülsemann  Dieter Kley  Björn Klotz  Hans G. Libuda  Tobias Maurer  Djuro Mihelcic  Geert K. Moortgat  Romeo Olariu  Peter Neeb  Dirk Poppe  Lars Ruppert  Claudia G. Sauer  Oleg Shestakov  Holger Somnitz  William R. Stockwell  Lars P. Thüner  Andreas Wahner  Peter Wiesen  Friedhelm Zabel  Reinhard Zellner  Cornelius Zetzsch 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2002,42(1):323-357

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.  相似文献   

Modulation and symmetry changes in stellar dynamos     

E. Knobloch  S. M. Tobias  & N. O. Weiss 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,297(4):1123-1138

Stellar dynamos are governed by non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs) which admit solutions with dipole, quadrupole or mixed symmetry (i.e. with different parities). These PDEs possess periodic solutions that describe magnetic cycles, and numerical studies reveal two different types of modulation. For modulations of Type 1 there are parity changes without significant changes of amplitude, while for Type 2 there are amplitude changes without significant changes in parity. In stars like the Sun, cyclic magnetic activity is interrupted by grand minima that correspond to Type 2 modulation. Although the Sun's magnetic field has maintained dipole symmetry for almost 300 yr, there was a significant parity change at the end of the Maunder Minimum. We infer that the solar field may have flipped from dipole to quadrupole polarity (and back) after deep minima in the past and may do so again in the future. Other stars, with different masses or rotation rates, may exhibit cyclic activity with dipole, quadrupole or mixed parity. The origins of such behaviour can be understood by relating the PDE results to solutions of appropriate low-order systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Type 1 modulation is reproduced in a fourth-order system while Type 2 modulation occurs in a third-order system. Here we construct a new sixth-order system that describes both types of modulation and clarifies the interactions between symmetry-breaking and modulation of activity. Solutions of these non-linear ODEs reproduce the qualitative behaviour found for the PDEs, including flipping of polarity after a prolonged grand minimum. Thus we can be confident that these patterns of behaviour are robust, and will apply to stars that are similar to the Sun.  相似文献   

Using archaeological data and sediment parameters to review the formation of the Gravettian layers at Krems-Wachtberg     

Marc Händel  Roswitha Thomas  Tobias Sprafke  Philipp Schulte  Michael Brandl  Ulrich Simon  Thomas Einwögerer 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(8):1397-1413

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